Your fantasy team has been sitting on Alvin Kamara for three weeks. Having been suspended, you couldn’t even put him in an IR spot, you had to take up a bench spot. And now, in Week 4, finally, at last, you get to put Kamara into your lineup. Freedom!
Only, should you be in a rush to do so?
Like earning a power-up or a booster in your favorite video game, sometimes using immediately isn’t the best option.
First, let’s make something very clear: There is nothing wrong with playing Kamara. Until proven otherwise, we envision him being a weekly weak RB2 or strong Flex option. With Jamaal Williams out with a hamstring injury, there isn’t really anyone in the backfield we think could steal significant carries, or goal-line work, away from Kamara.
Plus, he has played with Jameis Winston as his quarterback nine times, with seven of those coming in 2021. In those seven games, Kamara averaged 19.7 in PPR scoring. Easily worthy of sliding straight onto your starting roster, right?
Of course. Yeah. I guess. Maybe. OK, look, not all the data is so glowing. Granted, it is a small sample size, but Kamara’s 2021 success with Winston did not carry over in two games with him last season — Kamara averaged just 7.5 in those two games. Plus, the Saints’ ground game hasn’t look great without him, so it isn’t like he is walking into a scenario ready-made for instant success.
Also, Kamara hasn’t been tearing it up when he has played the past couple of seasons. His fantasy production has decreased for three straight seasons — with a career-low 14.1 per game in PPR last season.
Remember earlier when we said he doesn’t have competition from any in the backfield? Yeah, well, that didn’t paint the full picture. Taysom Hill is still a thing that happens sometimes. In the same nine games when Kamara has played with Winston, Hill has tallied four total touchdowns — just two fewer than Kamara, despite substantially less work.
So yeah, Taysom is Alvin’s potential TD vulture, even if he isn’t listed as a running back.
The matchup against the Buccaneers isn’t great. There is a sliver of good news: The teams they shut down (the Vikings and Bears) don’t run the ball well anyway, and when they faced a good run team, they gave up a ton of yards (173 to the Eagles). Though none of them managed to generate a touchdown with an RB.
If you’re waffling on Kamara and matchup is your tiebreaker, then sit him. But the matchup itself isn’t tough enough to dictate a start/sit decision.
The main reason you might sit Kamara is because you found a worthy fill-in during his hiatus. Like, say, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Zach Moss, Raheem Mostert, D’Andre Swift or James Conner.
This week, we would add Javonte Williams to that list.
Kamara is a fantasy turbo boost. But you want to make sure now is the right time to hit that turbo button.
Big weeks
Anthony Richardson QB, Colts, vs. Rams (FanDuel $7,600/DraftKings $6,700)
Will return after missing last week with a concussion. We expect no related performance issues. He has three rushing TDs in five quarters. That puts him on the map.
Daniel Jones QB, Giants, vs. Seahawks (FD $7,500/DK $5,600)
He has had 10 terrible quarters and two great ones. Even Andy Dalton put up big numbers against the Seattle pass defense. If you’re streaming QBs, Jones is a viable option.
Alexander Mattson RB, Vikings, at Panthers (FD $7,200/DK $5,800)
Going back to a mid producer for a second straight week. The Panthers aren’t good vs. the run, and we don’t expect Cam Akers to be heavily involved. Get another week out of him before he becomes useless.
Adam Thielen WR, Panthers, vs. Vikings (FD $6,800/DK $4,500)
We’re not big on revenge game narratives, but Thielen spent nine seasons with the Vikes before being let go. And he is the clear top WR for Carolina and playable, even with Bryce Young under center.
Small weaks
De’Von Achane RB, Dolphins, at Bills ((FD $6,400/DK $5,700)
The Madman has a sneaky suspicion Achane is going to be more of a best ball and DFS hero. Tougher D this week, and we still believe Mostert is going to get the larger share of red zone work.
Betting on the NFL?
Brian Robinson Jr. RB, Commanders, at Eagles (FD $6,700/DK $5,600)
This is a tough spot. And possible his big game vs. the Broncos was an anomaly. Bench him for now, but can fire him up next week against the Bears.
Mike Evans WR, Buccaneers, at Saints (FD $8,000/DK $7,000)
No team has his number like the Saints. He has faced the division rival 17 times, and he averages just 50 receiving yards per game. That is his lowest, by far, against any team he has faced more than four times.
Zay Flowers WR, Ravens, at Browns (FD $6,100/DK $5,600)
As much attention as he is getting in the passing game (25 targets so far), his production is a bit stale (13.8 per game). Cleveland is giving up only about half the league average to WRs.
Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (12 games)
Type: $12 tourney
Top prize: $10K
Pot: $100K
Drew’s Crew
QB: Kirk Cousins — Min (at Car) $7,100
RB: Alexander Mattison — Min (at Car) $5,800
RB: Khalil Herbert — Chi (vs. Den) $4,700
WR: Adam Thielen — Car (vs. Min) $4,500
WR: Justin Jefferson — Min (at Car) $9,600
WR: Amari Cooper — Cle (vs. Bal) $6,100
TE: Chig Okonkwo — Ten (vs. Cin) $3,100
Flex: Brandon Aiyuk — SF (vs. Ari) $6,200
DST: Browns — Cle (at Bal) $2,800
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Joe Burrow — Cin (at Ten) $6,500
RB: James Cook — Buf (vs. Mia) $6,300
RB: Zack Moss — Ind (vs. LAR) $6,000
WR: Courtland Sutton — Den (at Chi) $5,300
WR: Keenan Allen — LAC (vs. LV) $7,900
WR: Josh Downs — Ind (vs. LAR) $3,500
TE: Pat Freiermuth — Pit (at Hou) $3,400
Flex: Ja’Marr Chase — Cin (at Ten) $7,800
DST: Buccaneers — TB (at NO) $3,300
Season risked: $32
Season’s winnings: Drew $29, Jarad $9
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